Cook: Dems Could Lose The House

Veteran political analyst Charlie Cook says retirements are creating a “vicious circle” for Democratic politicians. For the first time, he sees a significant risk that Democrats could lose the House this year if trends continue. (Somebody alert RNC Chairman Michael Steele).

From Cook:

How many other wavering House — or Senate — Democrats will look at the past five weeks and decide that spending the rest of this year as a lame duck is more attractive than spending a horrific year fundraising, scarfing down fast food, and shaking hands — all the while facing the very real possibility of losing in the end? When their party starts singing endless choruses of “This is going to be a lousy year,” lawmakers can easily find themselves humming along.

Come November, Senate Democrats’ 60-vote supermajority is toast. It is difficult, if not impossible, to see how Democrats could lose the Senate this year. But they have a 50-50 chance of ending up with fewer than 55 seats in the next Congress.

As for the House, we at The Cook Political Report are still forecasting that Democrats will lose only 20 to 30 seats. Another half-dozen or more retirements in tough districts, however, perhaps combined with another party switch or two, would reduce Democrats’ chances of holding the House to only an even-money bet. We rate 217 seats either “Solid Democratic” or “Likely Democratic,” meaning that the GOP would have to win every single race now thought to be competitive to reach 218, the barest possible majority. But if Democrats suffer much more erosion in their “Solid” and “Likely” columns, control of the House will suddenly be up for grabs.

The Jan. 19 special election for the Massachusetts Senate seat could be key. A GOP upset — or even a close loss by Scott Brown — could likely trigger a new wave of Democratic retirements. Likewise, a smashing victory by Martha Coakley might slow the bleeding.

This entry was posted on Friday, January 8th, 2010 at 9:06 pm and is filed under Uncategorized.